Abstract

Geological maps show the composition, spatial relationships, and age of rocks and structures at and near the surface of the Earth and have a wide array of applications ranging from mitigating the effects of geologic hazards, facilitating environmentally sound development of natural resources, and resolving fundamental research questions in the geosciences. Geological maps are typically produced by State Geological Surveys (SGS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as public goods that are used by most economic sectors, with their value to society accruing through time. This report provides the first economic analysis of geological mapping for the entire United States. Total spending on geological mapping by SGS and the USGS during the project period from 1994 to 2019 was approximately $1.99 billion in 2020 USD. The number of maps downloaded and sold during that period was estimated at 7.1 million. The value and returns on investments of geological maps were obtained from a questionnaire distributed to 81,000 likely users of geological maps. Responses were received from 4,779 individuals and all 50 states. Key questions included information on respondent background, preferences for types and scales of geological maps, and quantitative estimates of geological map value in monetary terms and time saved.

Four different approaches were employed to analyze the value of geological mapping, and all demonstrated large positive returns on investments. The first was based on questionnaire responses about money and time saved, and because maps were available from SGS and the USGS at little or no cost, information was obtained on the willingness to pay for a map, estimates of the long-term value of geological maps, and expected payment for one map if unavailable. Median project time and cost savings were 20% and 15%, respectively. The median value per map use ranged from ~$11,000 to $18,000, with a long-term median of ~$10,000. Median amounts for willingness to pay and expected to pay were similar at $3,000 and $2,883, respectively. Using the most conservative median for the expected amount to pay per map ($2,883), the cumulative value of the actual maps downloaded and sold ranges from $13.9 to $20.6 billion. Based on these results, and the $1.99 billion cost of producing the geological maps from 1994–2019, the most conservative cumulative monetary value of maps ranges from ~7 to 10 times higher than the production cost, with maximum value estimates ranging between ~23 to 35 times the expenditure. The second approach evaluated the value of geological maps for six different regions of the U.S. (Northeast, Southeast, Great Lakes/Great Plains, South-Central, Intermountain West, and Pacific Rim), with results showing a high percentage of positive long-term values, ranging from 71% to 87%, for both public and private sectors for all regions. Average “cost-savings” (mean benefit value) for each region ranged from ~$11,000 to $30,000. Using representative states from each region, the average cost of producing a relatively detailed geological map (1:24,000 to 1:100,000 scale) ranged from ~$42,000 to $123,000, with the lowest cost in the Southeast and highest in the Pacific Rim region. A third approach assessed the general benefits of geological mapping based on data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Superfund program. About $86 billion (inflation adjusted to 2020) were spent on cleaning Superfund sites from 1994 to 2019. If detailed geological maps had been available and used prior to development of these sites, it is possible that some of the environmental impacts may have been mitigated. A 2.3% cost savings would have paid for the entire geological mapping program. The fourth approach involved an econometric analysis to evaluate the impacts of geological mapping. While scientific sufficiency of geological maps produced by SGS and the USGS is critical, the capacity of a private firm to invest to produce a new map comparable to the public-good map has a threshold based on a required return on investment. This analysis included evaluation of how the economic value of each sector was expressed by the various levels of geological mapping investment of that sector. Using the gross domestic product (GDP) component of each sector, the sectoral contribution to per capita GDP was identified. The allocation of each mapping type was calculated for projects that likely used publicly available geological maps or generated custom maps for nine major sectors of the GDP, including mining, energy, real estate, construction, professional, transportation, education, state/local government, and federal government. Sector per-capita input ranged from ~$131 to more than $4,700 per person, with real estate yielding the highest value and a collective economic value of greater than $19,000 per person for 2019. All approaches demonstrate that geological maps are a foundational part of our societal infrastructure with the benefits far outweighing the costs.