Chapter 7: Geological Map Demand and Economic Estimates of Costs and Benefits

Abstract

The demand for geological maps previously has been measured based on map sales. However, a rapid transition began in about 2009 from obtaining geological maps based on map sales to their online web availability. Therefore, for this 1994-2019 study, demand is assessed using information provided by 24 SGS and the USGS on their online views and downloads of geological maps. It is the first attempt to utilize such data for a national cost and benefit economic analysis. There were 4,360,736 geological map downloads and 11,401,967 online map views. For the latter, a conservative 3.32% conversion rate of map views to downloads was applied, and this action provided an additional 378,546 potential downloads. There were also 86,673 maps sold for a grand total of 4,825,955 geological maps downloaded and sold. It was assumed that the other 24 SGS that did not report geological map views, downloads, or sold data, contributed to the overall pool of geological maps, because they received federal funds for mapping and provided a 100% match. Their extrapolated geological maps downloaded and sold resulted in an additional 2,275,768 downloads and 46,383 maps sold for a grand total of 7,148,106. Using the most conservative median amount that respondents expected to pay per map ($2,883), the range of values between the actual maps downloaded and sold with the extrapolated amount are between $13.91 and $20.61 billion. Considering the $1.99 billion cost of producing geological maps during 1994–2019, value estimates range between 6.99 and 10.35 times the expenditure.

Download action is a very conservative estimate of geological map demand, because websites are designed such that mere “viewing” of a geological map may provide adequate information to the user without downloading it. Total views of 11,401,967, plus the actual downloads and maps sold accounted for 15,849,376 potential transactions. Therefore, the range of values between the actual maps viewed, downloaded, and sold with the extrapolated amount is between $45.69 and $70.15 billion, with maximum value estimates ranging between 22.95 and 35.23 times the expenditure. These maximum values are not realistic but, considering the conservative nature of this entire economic assessment, value estimates would lie somewhere between the 6.99 and 10.35 values and the higher extrapolated values of 22.95 to 35.23.

Adding to the conservative nature of this economic assessment, and factored into the above geological map web view and download numbers, is consideration of the interaction of robots (bots) with web sites. Nine SGS plus the USGS accounted for some bot activity in their reported numbers. For other SGS and years when bots were not identified, web view and download data were reduced by an average of 44.3% for bot activity in line with reported industry data for 2012-2019. This resulted in a significant reduction of geological map views and downloads. The only SGS that uniformly reported bot activity was the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, which reported a 14% average of bot activity. This one sampling may be more indicative of reality amongst other SGS. However, this lower bot percentage could not be confirmed with other similar public entities. Therefore, to maintain a conservative approach, the industry reported higher bot rate percentages were used for this study.

7.1: Geological Map Online Views and Downloads

Having arrived at a median value per map in the judgment of stakeholders, an approximation of the total value of all maps, without reference to its type, specific use, or scale, can be reached if the number of maps sold or accessed electronically could be estimated. One procedure for establishing the historical demand for geological maps produced by geological surveys has been based on the number of maps sold. Bhagwat and Ipe (1999), for example, used a total sales volume of 81,000 geological maps in Kentucky to determine a minimum aggregate value of those maps. Likewise, the geological surveys of Spain (Garcia-Cortes et al., 2005) and Nevada (Bhagwat, 2014) estimated the total value of geological maps and data sold on the basis of physical map sales. Similarly, geological map sales remain a good measure of map demand and use. However, the Association of American State Geologists (AASG) has been tracking overall publication sales by SGS, including maps, for decades. Reporting by Bradbury (2021) showed fairly robust sales of all publications over $3 million per year between the mid-1990s and 2008, but beginning in 2009 sales began exhibiting a steady decline that has continued to 2021, when sales resided at just over $500,000. The reason for the decline was the transition from traditional sales to online web availability, whereby most SGS and the USGS have provided maps and other publications to users free of charge, while a few other SGS have charged a low nominal fee.

Based on the transition to online availability, geological maps have become vastly more accessible to view, and if desired, to download to personal computers and other devices. Therefore, the measure of demand during the project period timeframe (1994–2019) has greatly expanded. To report this activity, SGS and the USGS were asked to provide their information on online views and downloads of geological maps, knowing that (1) reporting would be restricted to the most recent years of the project period because of a lack of early website record keeping capabilities or system changes resulting in lost statistical data; (2) some of the geological surveys, depending on analytical capabilities of their system or operators, could only provide web view statistics; and (3) some geological surveys would be incapable of providing any online web view or download data. Despite these limitations, all SGS and the USGS possess online web view and/or download capabilities, and these activities are direct transactions responding to growing needs for geological information that address specific natural resource, geological hazard, public safety, land-use, and environmental issues.

For the 1994–2019 project period, online web view and/or download statistics were provided by 24 SGS and the USGS. Therefore, web view and download data were not reported by 24 other SGS over the project period. Two states lack an SGS, and four did not respond to inquiries for their online view and download information. The remaining SGS did not/could not provide any statistics and explained that (1) while there were download files, time stamping of those downloads was not available; (2) online view and download data could not be found; (3) there was no mechanism for tracking of clicks without an IT ticket, and the IT department was understaffed; (4) given the different ways/places for accessing files with different formats, data accuracy was questionable; and/or (5) migrating to a new centralized system resulted in loss of older data and lack of more recent data to track newer website traffic. The USGS reported the longest record of online geological map views beginning in 1999 (Table 7.2.1). However, the earliest SGS reporting was from New Jersey in 2004, and the average earliest year of reporting for all SGS was 2011. Therefore, these data are considerably underreported and represent minimum values.

Although not requested to do so, 30 SGSs reported online views and/or downloads post 2019, five of which reported post-2019 data only. There were 31 SGS, plus the USGS, who provided some data, including those data over the post-2019 period. Their websites were visited to explore the means by which they offered download options, and 21 did so through PDFs.

A reliable measure of geological map use and map demand is the action taken by users to download geological maps from these sites. This is bolstered by the business and marketing community widely reporting that download action shows the serious intent of those browsing the web to use or purchase a commodity (Geckoboard website; Saleh, Invesp website, 2020; Burstein, Marketing Sherpa webpage, 2021).

Even among the 31 SGS and the USGS that provided data, the functionality of their websites for users to view and download geological maps varies considerably (Appendix 5). Only three SGS (Kansas, Kentucky, and Missouri) and the USGS have maintained website capability covering some years/portions of years for users to completely view a map without downloading it. Users (1) click on a link, thumbnail image, or a map boundary outline on a statewide location map; (2) access a geological map as a JPEG or other “non downloadable” image; (3) zoom in and out and navigate the online image; and (4) if desired, “screen save” or print the image. According to Hersy (Personal communication, 2023) of WebEx Digital Marketing Agency, the ability to easily access and engage with the image, without downloading it, also constitutes end-user action. Therefore, this online geological map view action is also used as a factor contributing to map demand for this economic study. The data from these four surveys were treated as follows and are shown in detail in Appendix 5:

1. The Kansas Geological Survey’s data only applies to the supplemental 2020–2022 information, and their JPEG views are equal to downloads.

2. The Kentucky Geological Survey’s view-only JPEG option was operational from 2004–2008, and these views are equal to downloads. During the post-2008 period, options were offered to either view without downloading or directly download maps. However, the number of these views and downloads by these two mechanisms could not be separated easily, and therefore all of their post-2008 map view data were treated similarly to other SGS map view data and subject to applying a conversion rate (as discussed below) of map views to downloads.

3. The Missouri Geological Survey’s online views of geological maps were provided beginning in 2014. They confidently reported that 90% of their website map files were JPEGs and therefore equal to downloads. The remaining 10% were treated similarly to other SGS map view data and subject to applying a conversion rate (as discussed below) of those map views to downloads.

4. The USGS has the longest record of map views going back to 1999. However, there has been a transition to viewable JPEG-like images because of the large volume of maps in the National Geologic Map Database (NGMDB). For this economic study, the USGS provided an annual estimate of the percentage of their map holdings that were transitioned to a JPEG-like image equivalent to a download (Appendix 5). The transition began in 2003 with 5% of their holdings, and since 2018 it has been over 20%. Those that were not transitioned were treated similarly to the majority of SGS map view data and subject to applying a conversion rate (as discussed below) of these map views to downloads.

7.2: USGS National Geologic Map Database Web Views

Because the NGMDB of the USGS is the recognized, nationwide, comprehensive listing of geoscience maps and reports, a brief discussion of its holdings, operations, and contribution to this economic assessment is warranted. Its current holdings comprise ~40,000 USGS and SGS geological maps among its 109,000+ geoscience publications. Since 1996 when the NGMDB opened its Web site, its Geoscience Catalog interface enabled users to search by various parts of a citation (e.g., author, title, year, publisher, map scale) and by geographic area, geoscience theme, or product format (e.g., paper, digital, GIS). From the search results, users could then select one of the geological maps and view its “Product Description Page” (i.e., “landing page”) — ​that user action constitutes an online view, which continuously has been operational since the 1990s.

The Web statistics data of the NGMDB were provided beginning in 1999 and constitute the earliest reporting of online geological map view statistics in the U.S. (Table 7.2.1 and Appendix 5). Only USGS online views were reported, and it was decided to include all geological map publications that currently include a viewable image of a geological map. It is a conservative estimate of geological map views and usage because the statistics exclude geological map publications for which a viewable image is not yet provided by the NGMDB. It is reasonably assumed that becoming aware of the map publication through the Product Description Page of the NGMDB enabled users to access and use the publication, either directly by viewing it at the NGMDB Page, or by accessing the link to the map publisher, which is provided at each Product Description Page.

In 2003, the NGMDB began to provide some online map viewing capability that, for this report, is considered equivalent to downloading. That capability is found on the “Product Description Pages” (i.e., Web landing pages for individual publications) and in NGMDB’s online viewer, “MapView”. NGMDB’s Web statistics were computed from those Product Description Pages that included a custom map-viewing inset (e.g., see https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Prodesc/proddesc_113783.htm) that enables users to fully inspect the content of the map. That functionality offers a similar result to a direct download—that is, map content can be viewed and used for many real-world applications.

The maps shown at many PDPs are also accessible through the MapView interface of the NGMDB (https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/mapview/?center=-109.832,51.422&zoom=4). The MapView interface includes a zoom function to view maps from small scale, as shown in the national coverage in Figure 7.2.1 to larger scale (Figure 7.2.2). As an example, Figure 7.2.2 shows in red outline the Heinrich et al. (2010) New Orleans 30 x 60-minute quadrangle at a scale of 1:100,000, produced by the Louisiana Geological Survey. More detail can be seen by zooming in farther. When a red box appears, the full text reference and a thumbnail image of the map is highlighted in the left-hand panel of the interface. Clicking on the thumbnail image, or the “More Info” button, then directs users to the Product Description Pages of the map — ​that action then is recorded as a “download” because the PDP is accessed, and the map and its explanation can be inspected in full detail. In all cases of Product Description Pages accessed through the NGMDB, download and additional view options for SGS maps were all referred back to their original source to ensure that they were properly credited.

Becoming aware of a map publication through the Product Description Page of the NGMDB enables users to access and use the publications. By this reasoning, year-by-year Web page views for each SGS geological map subsequently were reported by each SGS to the best of their abilities over the project period.

Table 7.2.1. SGS and USGS geologic map views, downloads, and maps sold — ​1994–2019.

Table 7.2.1

Figure 7.2.1

USGS NGMDB MapView showing small-scale coverage of geological maps in the conterminous U.S. https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/mapview/?center=-109.832,51.422&zoom=4 (Accessed March 28, 2022.)

Figure 7.2.2

USGS NGMDB MapView image showing the outline of the New Orleans 30 x 60-minute quadrangle at a scale of 1:100,000, with the full text reference, and a thumbnail image of the actual geological map. https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/mapview/?center=90.369,29.615&zoom=9 (accessed March 28, 2022).

7.3: Effect of Robotic Action on Geological Map Online Views and Downloads

A factor that affects reporting of web statistics, including geological map online view and download data, is the interaction of robots, or “bots”, with web sites. Bots are designed to perform specific and repetitive tasks, and they do so automatically, faster, and often more effectively than if humans performed them (Metwalli, 2021). Bots are classified as either “bad bots” or “good bots”. According to Karl Triebes, Imperva Senior Vice President and General Manager, and quoted in Security Today (2023), bots have evolved rapidly since 2013, and this technology will evolve at an even greater rate in the next ten years (to 2033) due to generative artificial intelligence.

Bad bots can result in significant economic and productivity loss (Distill, 2016). Imperva (2023) defines them as those that perform automated tasks with malicious intent, including fraud and theft. Imperva (2023) and Metwalli (2021) classified bad bots as (1) hacking that distributes and enables malware and can break networks; (2) scraping data from sites without permission, which includes stealing data, and then reusing it to gain a competitive advantage; (3) scalping, where items of limited availability are obtained and then resold at a higher price; (4) spamming using faulty advertisements to drive web traffic to specific sites; and (5) impersonating, where a user’s behavior is mimicked to gain their personal information or steal sensitive data. Bad bots also are used to create distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks targeted at a network or application. These cyber-attacks are designed to make a machine or network unavailable to users and are done so by overloading systems, thereby preventing legitimate users from access.

SGS and the USGS are within either the government or education sectors of the economy. Imperva (2020) mentioned that from 2014–2019 education averaged 45.7% bad bot traffic, while government averaged 37.5% bad bot traffic. However, for the former, Imperva (2020) highlighted that the reason for doing so was for scraping bots to maliciously search for research papers, class availability, and access to user accounts, and for the latter, to steal business registration listings, whereas other bots were used to interfere with elections and voter registration accounts. Neither of these would apply to viewing or downloading geological maps. In addition to data scraping, bad bot activity also involves hacking, scalping, spamming, and impersonating. Again, the incentive for substantial bad bot activity at SGS would seem to be quite low. Upon inquiry to SGS, there were no known bad bot intrusions into their web sites. However, as a large federal agency, the USGS NGMDB had experienced distributed bad bot denial of service attacks mainly targeting topographic maps.

Metwalli (2021) and Imperva (2023) mentioned that good bots conduct useful functions, and they usually operate with the permission of the website owner. They assist users by indexing and matching their queries with the most applicable websites and pages and ensuring that displayed products are easily discovered by customers. “Crawlers” interact with websites to collect and index data or monitor website performance. “Search engine spiders” are a type of crawler that extracts URLs from the web, and then uses them to download and separate data into searchable indices. Good bots also can be “transactional” if they are designed to move data and provide helpful information by sending notifications, emails, and texts. Based on these activities, geological map databases can benefit from good bots. One SGS website manager mentioned that they have identified search engine crawlers from analyzing http-user agents and “were comfortable with the activity. If the search engines were harvesting our content, then they were pushing people our way, or making it easier for people to get our products”. Easy access, distribution, and wide use of geological maps and information over many years are paramount to the mission of geological surveys.

Despite the benefits of good bots, the downside of all bots is that they can skew web statistics and make websites appear more popular than reality. Metwalli (2021) stressed that “being able to intelligently distinguish between traffic generated by legitimate human users, good bots, and bad bots is crucial for making informed business decisions”. Therefore, in the marketplace of private goods, web view and download data can be “manufactured” by companies through bots and falsely present a high demand for specific products. In view of such marketing practices, a question can be raised regarding the propriety of using map view and download data as demand for geological maps.

In analyzing this issue, a marketing division may succeed in creating the impression of high demand for outsiders. However, if the same impression is conveyed to the company’s own production division, the company could produce more products than could be sold. Therefore, it is safe to assume that this deceitful practice is likely to be uncommon and essentially non-existent among geological surveys embedded within governmental agencies and public educational institutions.

Estimating demand for geological maps from web view and download data must also consider that geological maps are a public good that are given away or sold at nominal cost that covers printing, mailing, and website maintenance costs. Therefore, there is no market for geological maps, nor an incentive for SGS or the USGS to create robotic activity to “manufacture” demand data, because they have nothing to sell.

In recent years, sales of printed geological maps by SGS and the USGS have markedly declined. However, there is no known reason to assume that geological maps are not needed or used to the same extent as before. On the contrary, more and more economic sectors require them, and simultaneously, online visits to map databases of SGS and the USGS have risen exponentially (Appendix 5). This indicates that ease of access has allowed many map users to switch from paper copies to digital versions. One way to estimate geological map usage is to count map downloads, and some SGS maintain that ability as discussed above. However, when download data are not available, estimates of “conversion rates” can determine how many web site visitors performed a meaningful transaction and downloaded maps. Conversion rates for geological maps used in the present study ranged from 3.32% to 7.2% based on download data monitored and reported by nine SGS for multiple years of map views and downloads as discussed in detail below.

The following procedure was followed to account for SGS and USGS bot activity regarding geological map web view and download data, with full realization that all bots can never be identified. Although bot traffic accounted for nearly 40% of all internet traffic in 2020, Knecht (2020) reported (see also Imperva, 2023) that much is yet to be learned in distinguishing bots from humans.

• Nine SGS plus the USGS were able to account for bot activity in their geological map web view and/or download numbers, saying that their data were either “bot free” or very minimal. For example, the Utah Geological Survey mentioned that they “don’t get much bot activity on the geological map portal (at least that we can identify and track). Our stats are pretty consistent month to month, so when there is a spike in views or downloads, we try to identify the source. It is usually easy to find where the unusual traffic is coming from and why and it is almost never bot-related”. The California Geological Survey reported that only their download data was bot free.

• Other SGS either did not have the capacity to evaluate bot activity or did not report on their degree of bot activity. Their raw website view and download data were adjusted to account for bots based on annually reported industry findings for (1) a 10-year (2013–2022) trend in bad bots, good bots, and human traffic (Imperva, 2023; Figure 7.3.1), and (2) 2012 data (Imperva, 2013) showing that bots accounted for 51% of web traffic (49% human traffic). Bot data from industry sources are not available prior to 2012. Therefore, between 2004 and 2011 (years for which SGS and USGS data were provided), web view and download data by SGS and the USGS were adjusted based on the average (44.3%) of Imperva’s 2012–2019 bad bot, good bot, and human traffic data (Figure 7.3.1). This resulted in a significant reduction of geological map views and downloads.

The only SGS that uniformly kept track and reported bot activity (2006–23) on their website (Table 7.3.1) was the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology (personal communication, Luke Buckley, Data Scientist, July 14, 2023). From 2006–2019, bot activity ranged from 7–22%, with an average of 14%. The 2020–2023 data averaged 23.5% bot activity. There was a 16% overall 2006–2023 average. This one sampling shows bot activity less than one-half of the industry average reported by Imperva (2023), and it may be more indicative of reality amongst other SGS. However, this study could not confirm the Montana lower bot rate activity despite consultations with several high-profile university map libraries, all of which could not offer any perspectives on the effects of bots on their websites. Therefore, to maintain a conservative approach to this economic assessment, the Imperva higher bot rate percentages were used for this study.

Figure 7.3.1

Bad bots, good bots, and human traffic, 2013-23 (Imperva, 2023).

Table 7.3.1. 2006–23 MBMG Data Center, standard vs. mobile analytics (including bot analysis), July 14, 2023.

7.4: Establishing Industry Standard Conversion Rate

According to Waite (Personal communication, 2022) of WebFX Digital Marketing Agency, it was legitimate to use the percentage of geological map downloads resulting from views as a conversion rate, because the views resulted in an action. Saleh (2020) reported that different goals, like downloading a lookbook versus adding a product to a cart or filling a form, can dictate the conversion rate. The average conversion rate of e-commerce websites in 2020 was 2.86% (2.63% in the U.S. and 4.31% globally). Daniel Burstein, Senior Director for Content and Marketing, Marketing Sherpa and MECLABS Institute (2021) distinguished conversion rates depending on examples from several industry sectors, including (1) software-as-a-service (5.1% who signed up for a free trial); (2) health food (13.4% who spent >5 seconds on a site); (3) clothing (5.2% who purchased clothing from an e-commerce site); (4) marketing agencies (4% who booked an estimation call, and 4–8% who optimized their websites); (5) real estate (49.3% who called, messaged, or asked for directions); (6) tourism (7–24% who booked a tour); (7) music education (10% who filled out a call-back form); (8) dating services (1.58% who navigated to an order received page); (9) sports/lifestyle blogging (3.78% who made a purchase, and 15.69% who downloaded an e-book); (10) business to business publishing (61% who clicked on outbound links for help); (11) gaming (32% who started playing cards); and (12) the casino business (26.5% who clicked to an online casino). A public sector study by Whang (2007) at Western Michigan University calculated a conversion rate of 10.5% based on the percentage of clicks on a library web advertisement to the number of orders derived from that advertisement from faculty seeking new electronic media for teaching and research.

Conversion rates commonly are used to determine the percentage of website visitors that turn into customers. They reflect those interactions between websites, consumer choices, and who may eventually complete desired actions (Whang, 2007; Ayanso and Yoogalingam, 2014; McDowell et al., 2016). Downloading a map constitutes such actions. Table 7.4.1 shows the online view, download, and maps sold contributions of the 28 SGS and the USGS that provided 1994–2019 data, nine of which provided both online view and download data in the same years. A conversion factor was used to help determine the percentage of their online viewers that downloaded a map.

Table 7.4.1. SGS and the USGS Contributing Data on Geological Map Online Views, Downloads, and Maps Sold.

Table 7.4.2. National conversion rate: 2012-22

SGS providing years of both views and DLs

Table 7.4.3. National conversion rate: 2012–19

SGS providing years of both views and DLs

Table 7.4.4. National conversion rate: 2020-22

SGS providing years of both views and DLs

For completeness, three conversion rates (Tables 7.4.2., 7.4.3, and 7.4.4) were calculated based on the geological map view and download numbers provided by the nine SGS for the:

• 1994–2022 overall project period (4.7%) with 2012–2022 data — ​4.7% conversion rate.

• 1994–2019 project period with 2012–2019 data — ​3.32% conversion rate.

• 2020–2022 period of supplemental data acquisition — ​7.2% conversion rate.

This simple calculation shows the highly significant increase in online geological map downloads since 2019. Although not analyzed in the stakeholder questionnaire or reported by SGS or the USGS, several factors are most likely responsible for this trend:

• Improvements in website technology allowing for easier access to geological maps.

• Increasing number of geological maps being made available for viewing and downloading.

• Increased overall demand for geological maps.

All three conversion rates are discussed in detail below.

Direct download data, similar to total sales volume, allows for a reasonable determination of the minimum aggregate value of geological maps. Table 7.2.1 shows a total of 3,558,150 directly downloaded geological maps over the 1994–2019 project period, plus 802,586 online views equivalent to downloads, for a total of 4,360,736 downloads. However, this is a minimum value because not all states reported their download numbers, and even for those that did, the earliest reported downloads occurred in 2004, and this was only for the New Jersey Geological Survey. All other states reported their first downloads later. Knowing that data would be sparse, and there was a higher likelihood of data retention for 2020–2022, online view and download data for these years were also provided by some SGS. However, 2022 data were not complete, as SGS information was only accepted through March 2022. USGS information was complete for 2022. The 2020–2022 recent data were included in the development of the overall 4.7% national conversion rate and used to further show the ongoing increase in online accessibility and downloading of geological maps beyond the 26-year project period.

The nine SGS that reported both online view and download data had 3 to 10 years of reporting, including data for 2020–2022. A total of 52 years of reporting from these nine SGS was used to calculate the average national conversion rate of 4.7% (Table 7.4.2). For those SGS that provided just online view data, or online view data for years prior to providing download data, the 4.7% national conversion rate was used to estimate that their 11,401,967 online views resulted in 535,983 additional potential downloads. However, for this study, the most conservative 3.32% conversion rate, covering just the 1994–2019 project years, was used, and this calculation reduced the additional potential downloads to 378,546 (Table 7.2.1).

For those nine SGS that reported both online views and downloads of geological maps, yearly conversion rates were calculated, and there are some observable general trends.

• Eight SGS (Arkansas, California, Colorado, Indiana, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming) displayed increasing downloads over their reporting periods. Download numbers for Nebraska were small (~42/year) and fairly constant.

• Three SGS (Texas, Utah, and Wyoming) displayed increasing online views over their reporting period, while Arkansas and Nebraska showed decreasing views, and California and West Virginia displayed fluctuating up and down view numbers.

SGS in Wyoming and Texas both showed that the number of their downloads increased over time. However, their number of online views increased at a far greater rate than downloads, presumably either because map users in those states became more comfortable with searching and just viewing geological maps, or the reporting method changed due to operation of a new system.

In addition to the nine SGS mentioned above, the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys reported a relatively steady increase in downloads of both geological maps and data between 2006 and 2021 (Appendix 5). Noteworthy was their increase of downloads from 2014–2021. According to Alaska’s Jennifer Athey (personal communication), considerable effort was spent from 2012–2014 building and deploying web maps and applications with the intent to increase accessibility and distribution of their products.

The nine SGS that reported both online view and download data had 1 to 8 years of reporting from 2012-2019 (covering the latter portion of the study period), and this accounted for 33 cumulative years of reported online view and download data that were used to calculate the average conversion rate of 3.32% (Table 7.4.3). There were 19 cumulative years of data reported for 2020–2022 (Table 7.4.4). For this period, there were 3,427,922 online views and 246,805 downloads, which yielded a conversion rate of 7.2%. Therefore, there was an obvious trend of downloading greater percentages of geological maps post 2019. Also, 33.8% of all online views from 2012–2022, and 51.8% of all downloads, were reported post 2019 as well. All these data show increased activity over time of downloading geological maps.

Table 7.4.5. Summary SGS and USGS geologic map views, downloads, and maps sold — ​2020–2022.

Black — ​Views, downloads, and maps sold.

Views and downloads include bot adjustments.

Green — ​Views are also DLs from SGS that only reported DLs.

Red — ​Additional DLs from SGS views-only years based on the 7.2% CR.

Thirty-one SGS and the NGMDB of the USGS reported their online view and download data beyond the 1994–2019 project period (Table 7.4.5). Although cost data were not obtained for these later years, these data show the continued trend in online viewing and downloading of geological maps. Data from 2020 to 2022 showed 5,641,580 additional online views and 1,338,689 downloads. The download numbers include the 7.2% conversation rate of online views-only data for SGS from Arizona, Kentucky, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Vermont, and some of the USGS data. There were also 16,631 geological maps sold during this period. Therefore, there were an additional 1,355,320 transactions that resulted in geological maps being directly or indirectly downloaded and sold over this most recent period. In graphic form, Figures 7.4.1 and 7.4.2 show the trend of online map views (from 2002) and downloads (from 2004) to 2021.

Figure 7.4.1

Geologic map online views from 1994 to 2021.

Figure 7.4.2

Geologic map direct online downloads from 1994 to 2021.

7.5: Geological Maps Sold

Adding to the demand numbers from geological map downloads, a small sample set of 13 SGS (only 25% of the SGS) provided information on the number of geological maps that were sold over the project period. While total SGS publication sales have been tracked annually by the AASG (Bradbury, 2021), geological map sales numbers, as a subset of overall publications, were not tracked or widely recorded. Figure 7.5.1 shows geological maps sales from 2000–2014 averaging about 2,700/year and then from 2015–2021 about 8,900/year. However, we do know that the number of maps sold was more robust than our incomplete data that began in 2000. Therefore, the number of 86,673 maps sold as reported here is very much a minimum value, but still contributes to the overall geological map demand numbers. Also, this study did not obtain a price for estimating the dollar value for maps sold. These sales primarily constitute paper maps that were distributed at the cost of printing or copying. Even if the cost was $10/map, the dollar value would only be $866,730, or roughly <1/2000ths of the total $1.99 billion of total costs reported by SGS and the USGS, and thereby not have any noticeable effect on cost and benefit ratios. In addition, because the total maps sold was so small (1.8%) in comparison with the total of geological maps accessed electronically, it was unnecessary to include any generated revenues from map sales into cost considerations for this report.

Figure 7.5.1

Geologic maps sold from 1994 to 2021.

While geological map sales data contribute to the overall demand and aggregate value of geological maps, the number of maps sold is ~2% of map downloads. However, the exception to minimal national geological map sales is that reported by the Colorado Geological Survey (38,243). This SGS accounts for over 45% of the reported national total of map sales through 2019, with a significant increase in sales beginning in 2015. According to Karen Berry, retired Colorado State Geologist (personal communication), geological map sales were large, because they included their state-wide map of expansive soils, and builders were required by law to provide buyers of new homes with a copy of the publication.

Those same 13 SGS also provided information showing that 16,631 geological maps were sold in 2020, 2021, and a portion of 2022 (Table 7.4.5), and maps sold constitute ~1.2% of map downloads. Again, the Colorado Geological Survey dominated with 85% (14,195 geologic maps) of those map sales.

7.6: Geological Map Download Extrapolation Scenario

Mentioned above was that only 24 SGS supplied online view and/or download data for the 1994–2019 project period, and that these actions primarily occurred over the second half of the project period, with full realization that online map views and download data were not available, under reported, or not reported for much of the first half of the project period. Therefore, map view and download numbers are very conservative. However, adding to this conservative assessment was realization that data were not reported at all from 24 other SGS. It is reasonable to assume that except for the lack of a SGS in Hawaii and Georgia, these 24 other SGS have been producing and disseminating geological maps. An extrapolation of potential online views and downloads can be made by evaluating the “robustness” of these 24 SGS (Table 7.6.1) based on their overall cost of mapping reported for this study and graphically portrayed on Figure 4.1.2. These 24 SGS have all been receiving funding from various sources for mapping, and it is a requirement of the USGS STATEMAP program that this federal funding be matched at 100%. The primary source of funding to SGS for geological mapping was through the USGS STATEMAP program, as discussed in Chapter 2.

Table 7.6.1. Geological mapping costs for 24 SGS that provided 1994–2019 online view/download data and 24 SGS that could not (HI and GA lack an SGS).

* Includes all Federal, state, local, and private sources

Table 7.6.2 shows that the 24 SGS that provided geological map view and/or download data accounted for 65.14% of the total SGS costs, and the 24 SGS that did not/could not provide these data provided for 34.86%. Table 7.6.2 compares Table 7.2.1 map download/sales data with extrapolated download and maps sold data from those 24 SGS that did not/could not provide online view/download or maps sold data. This table shows (1) Table 7.2.1 data; (2) Table 7.2.1 data extrapolated to include SGS only data (thereby deletes USGS data) from those 24 states; and (3) Table 7.2.1 data extrapolated to include the 24 SGS data plus USGS data. It assumes the most conservative 1994–2019 conversion rate of map views to downloads of 3.32%, and it also extrapolates map sales data. Most importantly, it assumes that the 24 SGS that did not/could not provide any online view and/or download data had a high likelihood of contributing to it overall. The result would have been an additional 2,275,768 downloads and 46,383 maps sold for a total of 7,148,106 downloads/maps sold.

Table 7.6.2. Total map downloads/sales comparing Table 7.2.1 with extrapolated download data from 24 SGS that did not/could not provide online view/download data, or maps sold.

7.7: Data Synthesis

For the nine SGS that provided both online and download data, conversion rates were calculated for the (1) 52 cumulative years of reported online view and download data covering the 2012 — 2022 period; (2) 33 cumulative years of reported online view and download data covering just the 2012–2019 period; and (3) 19 years of cumulative reported data for 2020–2022 (Tables 7.4.2, 7.4.3, and 7.4.4). For the entire 1994–2022 period, there were 10,137,694 online views and 476,716 downloads, yielding a conversion rate of 4.7%. Covering the 2012–2019 project period were 6,989,843 online views and 231,898 downloads, which yielded a conversion rate of 3.32%. For the 2020–2022 post-project period, there were 3,427,922 online views and 246,805 downloads that yielded a conversion rate of 7.2%.

In summary, Table 7.2.1 shows:

• 3,558,150 direct downloads of geological maps plus 802,586 online views equivalent to downloads for a total of 4,360,736. The 3.32% conversion rate estimate of 11,401,967 online views resulted in an additional 378,546 potential downloads for the 1994–2019 project period.

• The 4.7% conversion rate estimate of 11,401,967 online views resulted in an additional 535,893 potential downloads for the extended 1994–2022 period.

• 86,673 SGS maps sold (primarily paper maps that were distributed at the cost of printing or copying).

• Using the 4.7% conversion rate, covering the 1994 to 2022 period, results in 4,983,302 total maps downloaded and sold.

• Using the 3.32% conversion rate, covering the actual 1994 to 2019 project period, results in 4,825,955 total maps downloaded and sold. This number is the most conservative, and the one used for a minimum cost/benefit estimation.

In graphic form, Figures 7.4.1, 7.4.2, and 7.5.1 portray geological map online views, online downloads, and maps sold per year from the first recorded capturing of this information through 2021, the most recent year of complete SGS data. The three graphs show a noticeable uptick of national demand for geological maps beginning in 2013. This coincides with improved technological capabilities of both the SGS and the USGS providing more easily accessible geological maps, as well as the ability of the users to navigate websites and discover, view, download, and purchase the maps.

Based on this exercise, the total transactions that resulted in geological maps being directly or indirectly downloaded and sold during the 1994–2019 project period (Table 7.2.1) is very much a minimum figure for two reasons:

1. Download activity was reported by SGS primarily over the second half of the 1994–2019 project period, with full realization that map view, download, and map sold data were not available, under reported, or not reported for much of the first half of the project period.

2. Online map view, download, and map-sold data were not provided by 24 SGS for the 1994–2019 reporting period of this study.

Finally, adding to the conservative nature of this economic assessment and factored into all the above geological map web view and download numbers is consideration of the interaction of robots (bots) with web sites. Nine SGS plus the USGS accounted for some bot activity in their reported numbers. For other SGS and years when bots were not, or could not be, identified, web view and download data were reduced by an average of 44.3% to account for bot activity, and this percentage is in line with industry data. This resulted in a significant reduction of the original geological map view and download numbers provided by SGS and the USGS. The only SGS that uniformly reported bot activity was the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, which reported a 14% average of bot activity over the project period. This one sampling may be more indicative of reality amongst other SGS. However, this lower bot percentage could not be confirmed with other similar public entities. Therefore, to maintain a conservative approach, the industry reported higher bot rate percentages were used for this study.

7.8: Economic Estimates of Costs and Benefits

To help account for the 24 SGS that did not report any map view, download, or maps sold data, Tables 7.6.1 and 7.6.2 were developed with the assumption that they had a high likelihood of contributing to the overall download data, if they could have reported it. Online views equal to downloads (i.e., as discussed in Section 7.1 where SGS and the USGS provide users with full capability to completely view a map, zoom in and out, and navigate an online image), direct downloads, online views converted to downloads (using the 3.32% most conservative 1994–2019 conversion rate), and maps sold were calculated. The result was an additional 2,275,768 downloads and 46,383 maps sold for a total of 7,148,106 downloads/maps sold. Using the median amount that respondents expected to pay per map in responses to question 17 as the basis ($2,883), the cumulative range of values between the actual maps downloaded and sold (4,825,955 as shown in Tables 7.2.1 and 7.6.2) with the extrapolated amounts (7,148,106 as shown in Table 7.6.2) would be between $13.91 and $20.61 billion. In comparison, the cost of producing the geological maps during 1994–2019 was $1.99 billion. The value estimates thus range between 6.99 and 10.35 times the expenditure.

There has been emphasis on the download action to constitute a transaction, and that perspective provides the most conservative estimation of geological map demand. However, websites are designed such that the mere “viewing” of a geological map may provide adequate information to the user without downloading it. Table 7.2.1 shows that once the adjustment for bots was made, total views (without conversion rate adjustments) were 11,401,967, views equal to downloads were 802,586, actual downloads were 3,558,150, and there were 86,673 maps sold, for a total of 15,849,376 actual plus potential transactions. Again, using the median amount that respondents expected to pay per map in responses to question 17 as the basis ($2,883), the cumulative range of values between the actual maps viewed, downloaded, and sold (15,849,376 as shown in Table 7.2.1) with an extrapolated amount as discussed above (24,331,250) would be between $45.69 and $70.15 billion. Therefore, maximum value estimates range between 22.95 and 35.23 times the expenditure. It is safe to assume that these maximum values are not realistic. However, it is also reasonable to assume that, considering the conservative nature of this entire economic assessment, value estimates would lie somewhere between the 6.99 and 10.35 values and the higher extrapolated values of 22.95 to 35.23.

7.9: References

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